Mar 26 • 3 min read
AI Uncertainty: Are We at Risk?
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For as long as people have studied progress, they’ve also worried it’s about to end. In 1830, historian Thomas Babington Macaulay asked a simple but powerful question: "If everything behind us shows improvement, why do we assume everything ahead will get worse?" A century later, economist John Maynard Keynes made a similar observation. Despite massive gains in living standards, people were convinced the best days were already behind them. In other words, pessimism about the future isn’t new, it’s a pattern. And today, we’re doing it again. Only this time, instead of worrying that progress is slowing down, we’re worried that it’s moving too fast. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become the latest source of both excitement and fear—sometimes at the exact same time. *** Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast? 👇 AI: Cheer Or Fear?Just a few months ago, the dominant narrative was optimism. AI was expected to unlock a new wave of productivity, boost economic growth, and reshape industries for the better. Some even worried markets were getting ahead of themselves, pricing in too much upside too quickly. Then the narrative flipped. A wave of headlines (and a few viral pieces of science fiction) shifted the conversation almost overnight. Suddenly, the concern wasn’t whether AI would boost productivity, but whether it would replace workers entirely. So which is it? Is AI the next great productivity engine, or a threat to jobs as we know them? The honest answer is: nobody knows. We can spin out endless “what if” scenarios, but history offers a helpful anchor. Nearly every major technological advancement has come with warnings about widespread job loss:
Each of these innovations disrupted industries. Some jobs disappeared. But new ones emerged, and overall employment continued to grow. Even Keynes—who worried about economic pessimism—believed technology would advance so much that we’d eventually work just 15 hours per week. He was right about progress, but he was wrong about how it would play out. Today, people are working just as much—if not more—than ever before. That doesn’t mean AI won’t be disruptive. It likely will be. Some roles will change, others may disappear, and entirely new ones will be created. But if history is any guide, disruption doesn’t automatically lead to decline... it leads to change. And that’s an important distinction, especially when headlines are designed to amplify fear. As economist Deirdre McCloskey once put it: "People seem to have a natural preference for believing the world is going downhill." Which brings us back to today. AI isn’t the first innovation to spark this level of uncertainty, and it won’t be the last. The bigger risk, in my view, isn’t that progress stops or accelerates too quickly, it’s that we let short-term narratives shape long-term decisions. Additional ResourcesIf you’re interested in exploring this topic further, here are a few thoughtful resources that cut through the noise:
Bottom LineThe goal here isn’t to dismiss the risks; it’s to keep them in perspective. AI will likely change a lot. But history suggests that progress—while rarely smooth—has a way of creating more opportunity than it destroys. And as investors, that’s the lens that matters most. 📚 What I've Been Reading
Thank you for reading! Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback. Stay wealthy, Taylor Schulte, CFP® |