Mar 05 • 5 min read
8 Favorite Investing Charts (February 2026)
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Today, I’m sharing 8 of my favorite investing and economic charts from the past month. They highlight a range of timely topics, including:
Looking at headlines through the lens of longer-term data can make it easier to stay thoughtful and avoid reactive decisions. I hope the charts below help provide that perspective. *** Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast? 👇 Favorite Charts (February 2026)#1 - The On-Again, Off-Again (Now On-Again) Tariff Story This month, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s original tariff strategy was unconstitutional. Markets initially reacted positively, interpreting the decision as a potential easing of trade tensions. But that relief didn’t last long. The administration quickly pivoted to a different policy lever—Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—to impose a 10% global tariff (with certain exceptions). Shortly afterward, the President signaled interest in raising that rate to 15%. Under current rules, these tariffs can remain in place for up to 150 days unless Congress votes to extend them. 📝 The takeaway: trade policy remains fluid. And for investors, that likely means tariff-related uncertainty will remain part of the backdrop for the foreseeable future. #2 - Against This Backdrop, Consumer Sentiment Is Struggling With all the policy uncertainty in the headlines, it’s perhaps not surprising that consumer sentiment has weakened. The latest reading shows sentiment hovering near the same levels we saw in June 2022. At that time, inflation was above 9% and the stock market was deep in a decline. Caution, and even pessimism, made sense. But today’s backdrop looks very different. Inflation has cooled to about 2.4%. And since the June 2022 market low, stocks have delivered an average annual return of roughly 19%, rising from around 3,900 to about 6,900. In other words, today’s sentiment looks similar to a period marked by high inflation and falling markets, even though the recent experience has been nearly the opposite. The takeaway: how people feel about the economy often reflects their expectations about the future more than the data we’ve already lived through. #3 - The U.S. Market Is Off to a Rocky Start After several years of U.S. market leadership, the script has flipped...at least for now. Last year, international markets had a strong run, gaining 29%. That was impressive on its own, but even more notable relative to the U.S. market, which returned 16%. So far in 2026, that trend appears to be continuing. The U.S. is experiencing its weakest relative start to a year versus international markets in more than 30 years. The takeaway: market leadership rotates. It always has. Maintaining exposure to both U.S. and international markets isn’t about predicting which one will outperform next—it’s about being prepared for whichever one does. #4 - While U.S. Stock Prices Are Stumbling, Companies Are Thriving With stock prices pulling back recently, it would be easy to assume the underlying businesses are under pressure. But the data suggests otherwise. S&P 500 companies are posting their strongest revenue growth in three years and their highest profit margins in more than 15 years. In other words, many businesses are performing quite well—even as share prices wobble. The takeaway: the stock market and the economy aren’t the same thing. In the short run, sentiment often drives prices. Over time, however, business fundamentals tend to matter most. #5 - Don’t Listen to What People Say—Watch What They Do (Part 1 of 2) Consumer sentiment may be sliding, but actual behavior tells a different story. Despite gloomy survey responses, real personal consumption expenditures (i.e., what people are actually spending) continue to follow a steady upward trend. The headlines may sound worrisome, but wallets haven’t reflected the same level of concern. This disconnect shows up time and again. The takeaway: what people say in surveys often reflects anxiety about the future. What they do with their money reflects their current reality, and right now, spending suggests consumers are still actively participating in the economy. #6 - Don’t Listen to What People Say—Watch What They Do (Part 2 of 2) Spending isn’t the only behavior worth watching. Another notable trend since 2020 has been the surge in new business applications, which remain near all-time highs. Even with softer consumer sentiment, people continue starting companies at an impressive pace. There are different ways to interpret this:
The takeaway: starting a business requires initiative, confidence, and a degree of long-term thinking, an encouraging signal about how people see the future. #7 - GDP Missed Expectations—But Context Matters Real U.S. GDP grew at 1.4% in Q4 2025, roughly half the 2.8% economists had expected. At first glance, that sounds concerning. But the headline number doesn’t tell the whole story. According to First Trust, much of the shortfall was driven by a decline in government spending. Meanwhile, consumer spending and business investment—the core engines of the U.S. economy—came in largely as expected. The takeaway: while the top-line figure suggested a meaningful slowdown, the primary drivers of economic activity appear to remain on relatively solid footing. #8 - Stock Prices (Mostly) Follow Earnings When markets feel unpredictable, it helps to return to a simple truth: over time, stock prices tend to follow earnings. The chart below highlights the strong relationship between corporate profits and market performance. In the short run, prices can move independently of the data as headlines, policy changes, and shifts in sentiment push markets around in ways that don’t always seem logical. But when we zoom out, the pattern becomes clearer. The long-term value of companies is largely driven by their ability to grow profits, and in recent years, corporate earnings have compounded at an impressive pace. The takeaway: businesses that consistently grow earnings tend to create value over time, and that relationship between profits and prices remains one of the most important trends for long-term investors to keep in focus. Bottom LineIf there’s one theme running through these charts, it’s that today’s signals are mixed. Policy uncertainty is elevated...stock prices have stumbled...consumer sentiment has weakened. At the same time, corporate revenues and profit margins remain strong, consumer spending continues to rise, and several core drivers of economic growth are still holding up. That tension between headlines and fundamentals isn’t new. In the short run, markets often move on sentiment. But over time, stock prices have historically followed earnings. No one knows what the coming months will bring. That’s why our focus remains the same: diversification, patience, and disciplined decision-making through the inevitable ups and downs. I hope these charts offer a bit of clarity (and perspective!) amid today’s headlines. 📚 What I've Been Reading
Thank you for reading! Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback. Stay wealthy, Taylor Schulte, CFP® |