Apr 02 • 4 min read
6 Favorite Investing Charts (March 2026)
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Today, I’m sharing 6 of my favorite investing and economic charts from the past month. These charts cover topics such as:
Looking at headlines through the lens of longer-term data can make it easier to stay thoughtful and avoid reactive decisions. I hope the charts below help provide that perspective. *** Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast? 👇 Favorite Charts (March 2026)#1 - The Surprising Relationship Between War and Stock Market Prices It would be reasonable to assume that events like war—the ultimate form of uncertainty—would lead to weak stock market returns. But historically, that assumption has not held up. In fact, following major geopolitical events, the stock market has often gone on to produce returns close to its long-term average, with a median 1-year return of ~10%. That does not diminish the seriousness of war or its human cost. But from an investment standpoint, it serves as an important reminder: markets have historically shown a greater ability to absorb geopolitical shocks than many expect. #2 - Gas Prices Are Surging One of the most immediate effects of the Iran conflict has been higher oil prices, which are now beginning to feed through to the price of gas. The national average has recently risen to about $3.88 per gallon. If oil prices remain elevated, that will likely put additional pressure on inflation. Bloomberg estimates that if oil stays near $108 per barrel, inflation across most developed nations could increase by roughly 1%. If prices rise further, the impact may not stop there. Higher oil prices could also complicate the Fed’s path on interest rates, with broader ripple effects across the economy and financial markets. #3 - If Rates Move Higher, Mortgage Rates Usually Do Too Although the Fed left rates unchanged at its March meeting, markets have started to price in a greater degree of rate uncertainty. That shift is already showing up in the 10-year Treasury yield, which has risen by more than a quarter of a percentage point in recent weeks. Because mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury fairly closely, they have moved higher as well, rising by nearly a quarter point just as we were beginning to see some progress toward more reasonable levels. #4 - Higher Mortgage Rates Add More Pressure to the Housing Market Unsurprisingly, the geopolitical and economic uncertainty we are facing is offering little relief to an already strained housing market. At the moment, there are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers, marking the widest gap on record going back to 2013. That is clearly a headwind for sellers. But for buyers, it may be a meaningful shift. With more inventory and less competition, sellers may be more flexible and open to negotiation than they have been in quite some time. #5 - Market Corrections Are More Common Than Most People Realize For long-term investors, market declines are simply part of the experience. Sometimes there is a clear reason for the drop. Other times, markets fall for no obvious reason at all. While the stock market has historically moved higher over time, it has never done so in a smooth or predictable line. Declines of 5% or more have happened far more often than many people realize. Since the 2009 bear market bottom, the market has experienced 32 pullbacks of at least 5%—almost two per year. The causes may change, but the lesson does not: temporary declines are a normal feature of long-term investing. #6 - The Only Constant Is Change Right now, the war in Iran is at the center of investor concern. It is the risk dominating headlines and driving much of the market’s anxiety. But if the chart below tells us anything, it is that investor fears are always evolving. Today’s biggest risk eventually gives way to the next one. That does not diminish the human toll of what is happening or the seriousness of the conflict. It simply reminds us that uncertainty is never absent from investing, it only changes form. So while the current headlines may feel overwhelming, history suggests that this moment, too, will eventually give way to something else. Bottom LineTaken together, these charts paint a clear picture: uncertainty remains elevated. The war in Iran is likely to remain front and center in the news, trade policy continues to create challenges, and the stock market has pulled back somewhat in response. Even so, the companies we own, in aggregate, continue to hold up quite well. That tension between headlines, uncertainty, and market performance is nothing new, and not necessarily something long-term investors need to fear. No one knows exactly what comes next. That is why our focus remains on diversification, patience, and discipline through the inevitable ups and downs ahead. I hope these charts and commentary have offered some helpful perspective amid today’s headlines. 📚 What I've Been Reading
Thank you for reading! Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback. Stay wealthy, Taylor Schulte, CFP® |