Every few weeks, a new headline shows up warning that the end is near.

A hedge fund manager is "laying the groundwork to profit massively when the economy collapses."

A famous short-seller says the market hitting a record high is itself a warning sign.

A "record" number of investors have placed bets against U.S. stocks.

It's the same story, dressed up in a new headline, and it never seems to stop.

In today's email:

• Why doomsday predictions get so much airtime
• What the track record of market forecasters actually looks like
• Why you don't need a forecast to be a successful investor

As always, I'll wrap up with a few of the best retirement and investing articles I read in the past week.

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Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast? 👇

Why Doom Gets So Much Airtime

There are two big reasons.

First, if you're a famous hedge fund manager, the best way to make your prediction come true is to share it on every network that will have you.

Spark enough fear (mostly through emotion, with a little logic mixed in), and enough people might act on it to turn the prediction into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And because these managers are incredibly smart, they can make almost any position sound obvious and inevitable.

The media is happy to help, too. Attention drives advertising dollars, and the bolder the prediction, the more airtime it earns.

Second, the media knows most investors only remember the one time a forecaster was right, not the many times they were wrong.

The Big Short, and the Many Misses

Michael Burry became famous for his bold bet against the housing market leading up to the Great Financial Crisis.

So every time he makes a new bet, it makes headlines.

Here's what rarely makes headlines:

He's been wrong far more often than he's been right over the last 20 years.

As just one example, on January 31, 2023, Burry tweeted a single word: "Sell."

Two months later, he followed up: "I was wrong to say sell."

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt

And Burry is far from alone.

Each year, my friend Bob Seawright publishes a review he calls the "Forecasting Follies."

His 2025 edition found that over the 20 years ending in 2024, the correlation between Wall Street's market forecasts and the market's actual returns was essentially non-existent.

And from 2000 to 2023, the median Wall Street forecast missed by 13.8 percentage points per year. That's more than double the stock market's actual average annual return over the same period.

Another study, from CXO Advisory, graded 6,582 stock market forecasts from 68 experts. Their overall accuracy was 47%.

Worse than a coin flip. Yet every one of those forecasts sounded obvious and inevitable at the time.

These forecasters follow the same communication pattern as my most children: often wrong, but never in doubt.

What the Greatest Investors Admit

The most respected investors in history are the ones willing to admit they can't predict the future.

A few of my favorites:

"In the financial markets, hindsight is forever 20/20, but foresight is legally blind." – Ben Graham

"In all my 60 years in the stock market, I never found anyone whose opinion of what the stock market would do next week or next month was worth heeding." – Sir John Templeton

"I am certainly not going to predict what the stock market is going to do in the next year or two, since I don't have the faintest idea." – Warren Buffett

If they don't pretend to know what happens next, I'd encourage you to ignore anyone who does.

You Don't Need a Forecast

There's a bigger point here: forecasting is entirely unnecessary.

Look at any long-term chart of the stock market, and it's easy to see how rewarding discipline and patience have been.

According to J.P. Morgan, every rolling 20-year period for U.S. stocks since 1950 (through mid-2024) produced a positive annualized return, ranging from roughly 5% to 18% per year.

History offers no guarantees, but it shows there has been no need to predict the future to be a successful investor.

For retirees, a sound plan does the job a forecast only pretends to do.

With a war chest of 2-3 years of spending in cash and short-term bonds, a downturn (whenever it arrives) doesn't force you to sell stocks at the wrong time.

In other word, you don't need to know when the next decline is coming, you just need to be prepared for it.

Bottom Line

Bold predictions make for great headlines, but they make for poor retirement plans.

The world's greatest investors don't pretend to know what the market will do next, and you don't need to either.

A plan built for uncertainty, not a forecast, is what lets you spend with confidence through whatever comes next.

📚 What I've Been Reading

• Should You Delay Social Security Until 70? Not If You’re Married With An Age Gap (Define Financial)
• Who Is Really Rich in America? (Nick Maggiulli)
• The Richest People You've Never Heard Of (Next Big Idea)
• Why Doesn’t the Risk of AI Wiping Out Humanity Feel More Frightening? (Behavioural Investor)
• Your HSA Needs a Succession Plan (Morningstar)
• The Rise of Salted Carmel (Snack Stack)

Thank you for reading!

Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback.

Stay wealthy,

Taylor Schulte, CFP®