Sep 04 • 2 min read
Predictions and Your Retirement
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The scariest headlines often arrive with confident forecasts. The trouble? Most of those forecasts freeze today’s obstacles in place and ignore how quickly people solve them. Progress rarely moves in a straight line...but it does move. Stepping Stones to ProgressWe often mistake today’s problems for permanent limits. In reality, obstacles frequently become the spark for progress. The next three examples show how quickly assumptions can fade when solutions emerge. 1. The cell phone “ceiling” that wasn’t In the early 1980s, AT&T hired McKinsey to forecast cell phone adoption by the year 2000. Their projection? About 900,000 users total. At the time, the logic seemed sound: handsets were clunky, batteries drained quickly, coverage was unreliable, and calls were pricey. Surely those barriers would cap demand. But by 2000, the U.S. alone had 109 million cell phone users. What the analysts saw as permanent roadblocks instead became the innovation roadmap—phones got smaller, batteries lasted longer, networks expanded, and costs plummeted. 2. The “end of cheap oil” that wasn't In 1998, two geologists warned the world was on the brink of peak oil. They predicted that production would stall, reserves would dwindle, and prices would continue to rise indefinitely. But instead of decline, technology reshaped the story. New exploration, advanced extraction methods, and efficiency gains expanded both supply and reserves. Adjusted for inflation, oil prices today look strikingly similar to those in 2000. Scarcity didn’t spark collapse; it sparked ingenuity. 3. The famine that never came Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller, The Population Bomb, predicted mass starvation by the 1970s. With the global population set to explode, he argued, the world’s food supply couldn’t possibly keep up. Yet the opposite happened. Since then, the world’s population has more than doubled, while extreme hunger has fallen (both as a percentage and in absolute numbers). The Green Revolution’s breakthroughs in seeds, fertilizers, and farming techniques dramatically boosted yields, showing once again that human problem-solving can outpace even the direst forecasts. What These "Misses" Have In CommonMost failed forecasts underestimate human ingenuity. Problems aren’t permanent roadblocks; they’re prompts. We fix what’s broken, then use those solutions to unlock the next set of improvements. That’s why progress compounds. What This Means For Your RetirementOptimism isn’t about ignoring problems; it’s about recognizing how progress is built through them. Headlines will always sound dire. Markets will stumble. New risks will emerge. Yet history shows that today’s obstacles often become the foundation for tomorrow’s breakthroughs. That’s why patient, diversified investors are rewarded over time, and why our plans are built to expect surprises, not avoid them:
We don’t need a world free of problems to succeed in retirement. We need a process that keeps working while the world keeps improving. 📚 What I've Been Reading
*** Thank you for reading! Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback. Stay wealthy, Taylor Schulte, CFP® |