Today, I’m sharing 7 of my favorite investing & economic charts from the past month.

These charts cover topics such as:

• Inflation expectations
• Home prices
• Investment risk..and more!

🎙️ Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast?

Spend More. Stress Less. Retire Sooner. "I'll just work a few more years," might be a costly mistake. Learn the dangers of working too long, how to retire sooner, and how to (safely) increase retirement income. 🎙️ Listen now on ​Apple​, ​Spotify​, or ​YouTube​.

Favorite Charts (April 2025)

#1 - Consumer Sentiment Is Declining 📉

Across income levels, there is a growing consensus that the outlook is not very positive at the moment.

Over the past 35 years, sentiment has been low on only three occasions: during the Great Financial Crisis, when the dollar was downgraded in 2011, and, rather unexpectedly, again in 2022.

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that the market continued to post impressive gains following each trough of sentiment.

#2 - Inflation Expectations Are Spiking 📈

One reason for the widespread pessimism is that consumers expect a significant jump in inflation comparable to that of the early 1980s, which is quite notable.

Time will tell if consumers are justified in feeling this way, but with President Trump now backtracking somewhat on tariffs, there is a glimmer of hope that inflation will remain under control.

#3 - The State of the U.S. Dollar (1 of 2)

One talking point regarding the unprecedented tariffs has been the recent “turmoil” for the dollar. While the dollar has certainly struggled since tariff talk took center stage, it remains stronger than it has been for most of the last 40 years, which demonstrates the dollar's resilience.

#4 - The State of the U.S. Dollar (2 of 2)

As discussions about possible alternatives to the U.S. dollar as the dominant global reserve currency intensify, the movements of “High Net Worth Individuals” reveal much about the contenders for replacement.

Two candidates typically discussed are the Chinese yuan and/or a common currency from a collection of developing nations (BRICS).

Regarding these potential replacements, First Trust wisely poses the question:

I’ll let you decide, but I believe it bodes well for the dollar in the foreseeable future.

#5 - Home Equity (Wealth) Has Exploded

Since the start of 2020, home equity value has grown by about $15 trillion. 🤯

Remarkably, that is more cumulative growth than occurred during the twenty-year span from 2000 through 2020, when home equity expanded by about $13 trillion.

Given the current interest rates, the cost of accessing this newfound wealth may now be higher, but greater levels of wealth are unquestionably beneficial for whatever surprises might lie ahead.

#6 - Risk Is Ever-Present, But It's Ever-Changing

The chart below from Bank of America highlights what fund managers have identified as the “biggest tail risk” in the market each quarter over the past 14 years, making it one of the greatest visual tools for promoting a long-term outlook.

Not surprisingly, the most popular answer today is that a trade war will trigger a recession.

While this may be a significant risk, if you explore this chart, you’ll notice two things:

1. Many of the risks noted never materialized into much of anything.
2. Even those that amounted to something are now a distant memory as the market marched on despite the headwinds.

#7 - One of the Worst 2-Day Declines Ever

Earlier this month, the market fell by more than 10% over just two trading days. As “tariffying” (sorry, I couldn’t resist) as those two days were for investors, the market has fared remarkably well following other historic two-day declines. In fact, the average one-year return following the other nine instances was a positive 28%.

Bottom Line

In my writings and conversations with clients, I frequently emphasize the importance of patience for long-term investing.

Interestingly, the term patience comes from the Latin word "patientia," meaning "to suffer or endure.”

When it comes to investing, that seems almost too perfect.

Because we’ve learned from experience that exercising patience in investing is almost never easy.

It never has been and never will be.

But over the long term, I believe we can and should lean on history as it shows that patience has ultimately been rewarded every single time.

I suspect it will be this time as well…eventually.

Stay wealthy,

Taylor Schulte, CFP®