Oct 09 • 2 min read
5 Favorite Investing Charts (September 2025)
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Today, I’m sharing 5 of my favorite investing & economic charts from the past month. These charts cover topics such as:
🎙️ Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast? 5 Favorite Investing Charts (Sept. 2025)#1 – The Fed (Finally) Resumed Cutting Rates Last month, the Federal Reserve followed through on its long-anticipated decision to cut rates by 0.25%. The Fed cited a weakening employment picture (more on that in a moment) as the main reason for the move. Officials also acknowledged concern over the recent uptick in inflation (which I'll also address shortly), but softer employment data appears to have carried more weight in driving the decision. #2 – Unemployment Is Rising as Job Openings Decline Coming out of the pandemic, job openings far outpaced job seekers with nearly two openings for every unemployed person. As shown in the chart below, while unemployment has ticked up slightly in recent years, the more meaningful change has been the sharp decline in job openings. For context, the current unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, still well below the long-term average of 5.6%. So, while not yet alarming, it’s clearly on the Fed’s radar. #3 – Inflation Is Climbing Again The other side of the Fed’s dual mandate—beyond employment—is price stability. After struggling to control inflation post-pandemic, the Fed managed to bring it largely back in line. However, inflation has started creeping up again and now sits at 2.9%; still below the long-term average but about 0.5% higher than a year ago. Given how costly it was to play catch-up during the pandemic, the Fed is keen to stay ahead of the curve this time. #4 – Where Do Interest Rates Go From Here? Most forecasts call for another 0.50% in total rate cuts (two quarter-point reductions) during the Fed’s final two meetings of 2025, followed by continued easing in 2026. That said, it’s worth remaining skeptical of long-term projections as there were similar expectations at the start of 2025, and we waited nine months before the Fed cut rates again. Ultimately, future rate decisions will depend on how inflation and employment data evolve in real time. #5 – What Rate Cuts Mean for Mortgage Rates A common misconception is that Fed rate cuts directly lower mortgage rates. While short-term rates do have some influence, mortgage rates more closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, as shown in the chart below. Complicating things further, the mortgage spread—the difference between mortgage rates and Treasuries—has widened due to factors like rate volatility, prepayment risk, declining loan volumes, and general market uncertainty. As a result, we may not see mortgage rates fall as quickly or as much as many homebuyers hope. Bottom LineAs these charts show, we’re in an unusual spot: Markets are hitting all-time highs, even as the consumer-level economic outlook looks increasingly uncertain. While that might sound concerning, you can build a plan to factor in nearly all forms of uncertainty. It never disappears; it just changes shape. And throughout history, markets have consistently rewarded disciplined, long-term investors who stay the course. With history as our guide (it's the only guide we truly have, by the way) we’d be wise to continue staying the course. 📚 What I've Been Reading
Thank you for reading! Please reply to this email with comments, questions, and/or feedback. Stay wealthy, Taylor Schulte, CFP® |