Today, I’m sharing 5 of my favorite investing & economic charts from the past month.

These charts cover topics such as:

• Market Uncertainty
• International Stocks
• Dividends vs. Stock Prices... and More!

Let's dive in! 👇

#1 - Uncertainty Is Looming Large (Part 1)

While unemployment remains historically low, over 60% of people are worried about job losses in the next twelve months.

How this will ultimately play out remains to be seen, but people are on high alert for bad news as we speak.

#2 - Uncertainty Is Looming Large (Part 2)

After years of optimism for both business conditions and inflation, consumers have suddenly shifted their stance due to economic uncertainty.

As shown in the charts below, consumers now expect business conditions to deteriorate and inflation to rise as we look toward the future.

#3 - Ignore the Forecasters

When uncertainty is as high as it is today, it’s natural to look to "expert forecasters" to provide insight and settle our anxiety.

How much will the stock market fall? How long will it last? What will happen with interest rates?

The only problem with forecasting is that nobody seems to be able to do it very well.

Or maybe, not at all.

For example, the chart below compares the year-end market forecasts from the most renowned investment firms with the market’s actual year-end value.

The results?

Every year since 2016, the S&P 500 has finished the year either above the highest forecast or below the lowest forecast.

When you consider the time and resources dedicated to this charade, it’s incredible that they’ve missed the mark so badly.

This fact alone should forever disavow us of any prescience these ‘experts’ might claim to have.

#4 - U.S. Stocks Are Not Invincible

For anyone who might need a refresher on the value of diversification and why we advocate for it, this chart might be helpful.

For the last few years, I’ve heard many investors question diversification based on the assumption that the U.S. will continue its stock market dominance.

While it’s still possible that the U.S. outperformance will continue, the first quarter might be a shift in the tide as U.S. equities are currently lagging international equities by a record amount.

#5 - Dividends & Buybacks Are Coming off a Fresh Record

In 2024, S&P 500 companies returned about $1.6 trillion to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, which is a new record.

One noteworthy observation from the chart below is the consistent growth of dividends, despite enduring two bear markets (2020 and 2022) and two negative return years (2018 and 2022) during this time period.

If we want to maintain sanity in the face of uncertainty, we should focus on the earnings growth and cash returned to shareholders instead of stock prices.

Bottom Line

Despite frequent global crises over the past 50 years, the global markets have thrived in the long run.

That’s not to say that we know how the market will perform in the near term.

We don’t.

But all that we’ve overcome throughout history should provide some hope, confidence, and optimism during difficult, uncertain times.

So, while many investors, commentators, and pundits are eager to label our current times as unique or different—as if this might be the end of the world—we should ask ourselves:

Only time will tell, but history is on the side of the optimists.

To growing together,

Taylor Schulte, CFP®